Simulated Scenario: Super Volcanic eruption and an Asteroid Impact!

Earth is a fragile place in the respect that all life depends on the environment staying at a constant. However, if we eliminate all of the conspiracy theories, there are still some real concerns, although these concerns are minimum they still hold some probability. There are two populated theories that have drawn much attention to their potential demise towards humanity. The first being a super-volcanic eruption, these have occurred throughout history, the last super-eruption being that of Toba just 75,000 years ago. Our early ancestors were around to experience this eruption which has led to some scientist suggestion that this catastrophic event had a significant impact on the human population at the time which led Earths climate to experience a volcanic winter lasting 5-10 years. Although Toba nowadays does not play the central role for the next super-volcanic eruption, the prime focus tends to be drawn towards Yellowstone caldera.
Another common threat dramatised through blockbuster movies is that of an asteroid impact. Asteroids become more threatening due to their size, shape and the geological material that supports them. Clearly, any asteroid impact would offer dangerous consequences which become more predominate in populated areas like cities. There are some extremely large asteroids that are classified as near-earth objects, these are constantly monitored by space agencies, although they are not predicted to come into contact with the earth they still promote a worrying concern. Two of the biggest near-Earth objects 433 Eros and 1036 Ganymed, were naturally also among the first to be detected. 1036 Ganymed is about 35 km (22 mi) in diameter and 433 Eros is about 17 km (11 mi) in diameter.  

Below is a video of two simulated scenarios show a Yellowstone super-eruption and a large asteroid impact which elaborate an example of the worst-case scenario. 

Probability of asteroid hitting Earth

Asteroids with a 1 km (0.62 mi) diameter strike Earth every 500,000 years on average. Large collisions – with 5 km (3 mi) objects – happen approximately once every twenty million years.

Probability of a super-eruption at Yellowstone

Although it is possible, scientists are not convinced that there will ever be another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone. Given Yellowstone's past history, the yearly probability of another caldera-forming eruption can be approximated as 1 in 730,000 or 0.00014%.


Popular Posts